The efficient theory of the financial market isn't true in a larger Time Frame.
My theory is based on a future event is predicted by some past and present events. The market could be predicted in a larger Time Frame. It is a non-efficient market theory. The Noble prize in Economic Sciences 2013 (Trendspotting in asset markets) is an evident for those.
Some words at the site:
"...There is no way to predict the price of stocks and bonds over the next few days or weeks. But it is quite possible to foresee the broad course of these prices over longer periods, such as the next three to five years. These findings, which might seem both surprising and contradictory, were made and analyzed by this year's Laureates, Eugene Fama, Lars Peter Hansen and Robert Shiller..."
In fact, the financial market could predict at a shorter time frame as swing trading.
What is a non-efficient market?
The maket's price chart is a projection of
Human emotions in trading: Traders are panic or greedy make a change in market
Exchanges currencies by supplying and demanding in a reality: For example, you travel to EU. You could change some US dollar to EU dollar for spending. The U.S. International Firms in EU change EU dollar back to US dollar.
Hence, We have 3 forces. Up-force, Down-force, and Neutral.
It's describled in a 4th-dimension space - (Up-force, Down-force, Neutral, time), and is projected into a 2th-dimension space - (price, time).
The present affects the future A present news could affect to some charts to create some new resistances or supports. It could affect a future price if the price hit them.
The Present is affected by the past Price hit the past resistance or support could change its path. We could predict 3th-EW from 2th-Elliott Wave. Theory could predict price in larger time frame as 4 hours-chart, daily chart,.... If I am using 1-year time frame to analyze . Then I think they could happend in this year or next a few of years. The theory give us points which chart has to go through sooner or later (It looks like price is overprice or Imbalance it have to come back its fair value or balance). Gap theory and J-chart are its particular cases News at the present and in future will drive price going through the points faster or slower.
Policies of a country affects to its economy and the market A country issues policies or actions. It will affect to people and business of that country in the future. Hence, It will affect to prices of securities. if It is a bad policies or actions . People and business will be collapsed later. Hence, It will affect to prices of securities. then, The country could issue a modify policies or actions to fix problems in the past. Hence, It will affect to price of securities again. It looks like you eat bad food. We could throw out later.
What should the government do? They don't try to releases a good news too much compare to their current status of economy. Some Investors and traders are buy securities by the good news. This will make price of a security is overprices. Hence, the markets couldn't collapse too much right way. They could be decreasing gradually while they have a correction or a down economy. They could use results to fix their economy status - a form of intervention - for example, The U.S.'s QE2 plan (from 9/2010-6/2011 - Buy bond plan kept a low interest rate for loans). Please, see How has it affected to S&P 500 ? If there is good or bad news, its price could be going up or down more. But, It's still overvalue or undervalue. Once day, Investors and traders will recognize this. Then, They will sell or buy them right way. This could make price dropping or climbing quickly- a spike. The free market is always comming back to its balance.
Where is prediction based?
Prediction is based on "Imbalance" of the market.
How to spot this? There are many ways to spot this. for example: J-chart, some basic indicators, or ....
Results of prediction
Of crashing on May 6, 2010! I have used 1 minute-time frame to analyze. At that time, I though it could happend in a next few of days. But, It happended after a month !
Of crashing on Aug 8, 2011! I predicted the event on 01/10/2011 (8 month before !).
and I had a another analyis in a article (written on 06/14/2011) "Perspective of the U.S. economy under a S&P 500 technical analysis's Angle" that I have predicted on the crash on last monday 08/07/11. Thus, I foresaw the crash 8 month ago, and 2 month ago for repeating..
Dhan's pivote points of EUR/USD. On message board On 05/09/11, We gave Dhan's pivote points of EUR/USD (I have calculated them)
P1 = 1.38406
P2 = 1.32982
E/U reached to 1.38404 on 07/12/11. Very close to P1! and P2 on 10/03/11.
A future chart of EUR/USD. We gave a future or projected price chart of EUR/USD (
see chart) on 09/28/11.
Please,see the below price chart chart to compare.
Of fear Index ^VIX. We gave a future or projected price chart of ^VIX (
see chart) on 08/18/12.
I found theory of timing of financial markets on 2/12/2010 while I was watching price's movement of EUR/USD. At that time, I think it only right for currencies. After that, I though that the stock indexes are commodities, too. Then, I am watching the U.S indexes (here I only give S&P 500 and DJIA.
It's hard to predict the U.S. index for a long-term except their trend is up because components of the indexes could be changed, and stimulate by the government in programs by bond to make low interest rate. The indexes' components is changed . Then, Imbalance in old components could be cancelled by replacing the new components. Hence, they could be predicted good with the whole certain components during a certain time period. In addtion to, They could predict good in a free market, the end of QE programs of the government.
Investment into index funds, or ETF is quite simply by more share while they bound back. It is a winning strategy by their trend is up if you do this for a long-term.
Fear index - ^VIX is predicted easier than the indexes because It's coming naturally and likes as a free market. Please, see Predition of ^VIX at our blog.
I'm calculating time that these events could happend. It may follows Fibonacci, theory Gann, or .... Wofle Waves could give a good estimate of time.
About Publishing information
We try to explain predictions by the theory in current technical and Fundamental Analysis context before pulishing them on some web sites. Some predictions without current analysis means we couldn't explain them in current analyzing context.
This page has been collecting data, writing my theory, and developping. Please, visit it again. Thanks.